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My take: what NBA preseason is telling me before opening night

Opinion The author's own takes, written in his voice. The facts behind them are cited and linked.

By McKinley Malbrough III, J.D., MS-HRM · Certified WNBA player agent · Former certified NBA agent

Published October 14, 2026. Last updated October 14, 2026.

This post is opinion. The facts each take rests on are cited and linked, and the regular season opens Tuesday, October 20, with the Knicks hosting the 76ers, per NBC. The league's bigger long-term question, expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas, is tracked in the post on the expansion timeline.

What does LeBron on a minimum in Philadelphia tell me?

That the most important number in his contract is the one he gave up. LeBron James is 41, starting a record 24th season, and signed for two years at the league minimum after eight seasons with the Lakers, per NBA.com. The deal and the cap math behind it are broken down in how the Curry and LeBron contracts compare.

My read: a player at that stage is paying for fit, not for money, and Philadelphia gave him one. The 76ers traded Paul George and draft picks to Boston for Jaylen Brown, a former Finals MVP, per NBA.com’s season preview.

The risk is the same one that has followed this team for years. Joel Embiid played 45 of 94 possible games last season, per the same preview. If he is healthy in April, I think this is the most dangerous roster in the East. If he is not, the minimum signing looks like a generous gift to a team that could not use it.

Why do I think Milwaukee made the right call on Giannis?

Because a slow decline costs more than a hard reset. The Bucks sent Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to Miami for Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, the No. 13 pick, a 2030 pick swap and first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, per the Associated Press. Milwaukee opens its first season without him since 2012-13, under new coach Taylor Jenkins, per NBA.com.

My take: Milwaukee sold at the top of the market instead of the bottom. Giannis debuted for Miami with 9 points and 7 assists in 14 minutes, per the same report, and that line means nothing yet. What matters is that the Heat now have to pay him. The AP reported it was generally presumed Miami would offer a large extension later this year. That negotiation is the one I will be watching.

Why is the rookie extension market so quiet?

Because teams now pay early only for certainty. Five players from the 2023 draft had rookie scale extensions by October 11: Victor Wembanyama, Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Keyonte George and, on October 10, Brandin Podziemski, per ClutchPoints and NBA.com. The deadline is October 19, and anyone unsigned becomes a restricted free agent next summer. The rules are in how rookie scale extensions and restricted free agency work, and the latest signing is covered in the post on Podziemski’s extension.

My read: the apron rules have split the class in two. Stars get paid now. Everyone else is being asked to prove it, and executives told RealGM the slow pace traces to apron limits on roster flexibility. Betting on yourself is a real choice with real risk, and the right answer depends on one player's health, role and market.

Can the Knicks repeat?

They can, but preseason will not tell anyone. New York beat San Antonio 94-90 in Game 5 on June 13 to win its first title since 1973, with Jalen Brunson scoring a franchise-record 45 points, per SNY. The banner goes up October 20 against Philadelphia, per NBC.

Philadelphia beat the Knicks 120-97 in the preseason opener without LeBron, Embiid or Tyrese Maxey, per NBA.com. I would not read anything into that score. I would read a lot into the rematch on opening night, because a champion's first game tells you whether it still plays with the same edge.

Which rookies am I watching?

The top three, and the ones earning trust late in games. Washington took AJ Dybantsa first, Utah took Darryn Peterson second and Memphis took Cameron Boozer third, per Sky Sports. The Clippers' Keaton Wagler, the No. 5 pick, hit a go-ahead step-back with 12.8 seconds left against Golden State, per NBA.com.

My rule for rookies: watch minutes, not points. A coach who leaves a rookie in during the last five minutes is telling you more than any box score. Their pay is fixed by the scale either way, as the 2026-27 rookie scale shows, so the second contract is where those minutes turn into money.