The NBA’s new 3-2-1 draft lottery: what changes, who it helps and when it starts
The short version
The NBA’s Board of Governors approved the 3-2-1 draft lottery on May 28, 2026. It starts with the 2027 draft and covers 2027, 2028 and 2029. The lottery grows from 14 to 16 teams, play-in teams get lottery balls, the three worst teams fall no lower than No. 12, and no team can pick No. 1 in back-to-back drafts.
The change is settled, not proposed. The Board of Governors approved it on May 28, 2026, per the NBA, by a 29-1 vote with Memphis the lone no vote, per the Associated Press. Here is what the system does and who it helps.
What does the NBA's new 3-2-1 draft lottery do?
It puts 16 teams in the lottery instead of 14 and changes how many lottery balls each team gets. The 3-2-1 lottery takes effect with the 2027 draft and applies to the 2027, 2028 and 2029 drafts, per the NBA. The ball counts are the 3, 2 and 1 in the name:
- Teams that miss both the playoffs and the play-in get three balls each, except the three worst records, which are draft relegated and get two.
- The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds in each conference get two balls each.
- The losers of the No. 7 versus No. 8 play-in games get one ball each.
How do the NBA draft lottery odds for 2027 compare with the old system?
The worst teams lose the most. The ball counts above add up to 37 balls, so a team's chance at the No. 1 pick is its balls divided by 37. That is calculation from the NBA's allocation, not a published table. The old system gave each of the three worst records 14.0%, per Sports Illustrated.
| Group | Balls | Chance at No. 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Three worst records | 2 | 5.4% |
| Other non-play-in teams | 3 | 8.1% |
| No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds | 2 | 5.4% |
| No. 7 and No. 8 play-in losers | 1 | 2.7% |
Under the old system the fourth-worst record had 12.5% and the tenth-worst 3.0%, per Sports Illustrated. Under the new one, each of the seven teams from fourth-worst to tenth-worst among non-play-in teams has about 8.1%. The pick-by-pick odds table is in an NBA document that was not available to check, so this post does not give odds for picks other than No. 1.
What do the anti-tanking rules add, including draft relegation and the ban on back-to-back No. 1 picks?
They add a floor, two streak bars and a limit on trading protected picks. Draft relegation means each of the three worst teams can fall no lower than No. 12, and the other lottery teams can fall as far as No. 16, per the NBA. A team's own pick cannot be No. 1 in two consecutive drafts or a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts. Teams also cannot attach top-12 through top-15 protections to newly traded picks.
The league also gained expanded authority over tanking: it can reduce a team's lottery odds, modify its draft position and impose significant fines, per the NBA. The old system protected the worst team from falling past No. 5, per Sports Illustrated. For a draft-relegated team, the new floor of No. 12 is seven spots lower.
Which teams gain or lose when play-in teams get lottery balls?
By the ball counts, the three worst teams lose the most, and play-in teams gain a chance. That is this post's analysis of the NBA's allocation, not a statement from the league. The three worst records go from 14.0% each to 5.4%, while the next seven non-playoff teams each hold three balls, about 8.1%. The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds and the losers of the No. 7 versus No. 8 games now hold two or one balls each.
The release is titled as a move to address tanking, and the bottom three now hold fewer balls than the teams just above them. The NBA's release does not say how a play-in team that reaches the playoffs is treated, so this post does not describe that case. The salary side of a top pick is covered in the rookie scale guide.
What does the new lottery mean for the 2027 draft class and prospects deciding whether to enter?
It changes the range of teams a prospect can land with, not the entry rules. The system takes effect with the 2027 draft, per the NBA, so the 2027 lottery is the first drawing under it. A prospect weighing early entry should compare the other routes into the league in the guide to professional basketball paths. The eligibility rules and deadlines are in the NBA draft eligibility guide.
When does the lottery sunset, and what should fans watch next?
The system sunsets after the 2029 draft. Selection order from the 2030 draft onward will be set by a vote of the Board of Governors, per the NBA. Watch the first drawing in 2027, any use of the new discipline powers, and the Board's decision on whether to keep, change or end the system before 2030.
Sources
- NBA: Board of Governors approves new draft lottery system to address tanking
- Associated Press via WTOP: NBA Board of Governors passes anti-tanking changes to the draft lottery
- Sports Illustrated: How the NBA draft lottery works and the odds
Data current as of October 19, 2026. Figures are linked where each one appears. Leagues and regulators update these rules; check the source before relying on a number.
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